Europe’s effort to rescue Greece has
become all too like an episode of the TV hospital drama
“House.”
If you’ve seen the show, you know the drill: An unreliable
patient with alarming symptoms (Greece) is being treated by a
chief doctor who has the bedside manner of a sociopath (the
troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and
the International Monetary Fund). Near deaths and false
recoveries ensue.
Sunday’s parliamentary elections should in theory offer a
chance for a cure. Political parties, which since November have
taken a back seat to a government of technocrats, now have the
opportunity to secure a popular mandate for reform.
The prognosis isn’t great. That’s because the two main
parties -- New Democracy and Pasok -- are part of the problem.
In the years leading up to the crisis, they spent freely on
pensions and health care, and a New Democracy government then
lied about the resulting budget deficits. They also failed to
reform a bloated and dysfunctional state bureaucracy.
Worse, neither party has taken full ownership of the
austerity program they had to accept for Greece to get a 130
billion euro ($172 billion) bailout in March. They’ve spent too
much of their election campaigns promising to find ways to
ameliorate the deal, and too little explaining to Greeks the
hard things they need to do and why.
Messy Coalition
Not surprisingly, New Democracy and Pasok look set to lose
about half of their usual share of the vote to a rash of small,
new or extreme parties. The likely outcome will be a messy
coalition government or a repeat vote. This is problematic,
because Greece has a deadline in June to detail how it will make
budget cuts worth an additional 5.5 percent of gross domestic
product for 2013 and 2014. If it fails to do so, the troika
might cut the country’s cash lifeline.
Greece’s dysfunctional state, crippling as it is, has a
potential upside. If any new government can achieve even a
modicum of competence, it can reap great rewards with some
simple changes. Consider, for example, a discovery the Labor
Ministry announced last week: It found 200,000 people who were
claiming pensions illegally, many on behalf of people who had
long been dead. That’s almost 10 percent of Greek pensioners and
a potential savings to the government of 800 million euros a
year.
The same goes for taxes. Greece’s ratio of uncollected tax
debt to tax revenue was 72 percent last year, compared with an
average of 12 percent among fellow countries in the Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development. This represents a huge
potential harvest of revenue to reduce the deficit.
Greece has moved exceedingly slowly to fix these obvious
problems. It took civil servants a full two years to complete
the seemingly simple task of checking the names of pension
recipients against death records. No wonder the IMF’s review of
Greece’s rescue program released in March reads like a cry of
despair -- especially when it comes to fixing the tax system, a
top priority on which the fund admits to failure.
Many of the reforms demanded of Greece are things it needs
to do for its own sake, not Germany’s, and regardless of
spending cuts. The World Bank’s ease of doing business index
ranks Greece at 100, just below Yemen. Latvia, which ranks 21st,
saw a much sharper decline in GDP than Greece as a result of the
economic crisis, but is already (and not coincidentally)
bouncing back.
Real Hardship
It would be grossly unfair to say that Greeks and their
government have done nothing. Since 2009, they’ve reduced the
primary budget deficit (excluding interest payments) by more
than 8 percent of GDP and unit labor costs by 9.5 percent. There
has been real hardship: The economy has shrunk by 13 percent
since the onset of the crisis and is expected to contract by an
additional 4 percent to 5 percent this year.
Greece has promised the troika that it will slim the
public-sector workforce by at least 150,000 jobs, more than a
fifth, by 2015; reduce the minimum wage by 22 percent (and a
further 10 percent for workers younger than 25); and deregulate
20 protected professions, including truck drivers. To date, most
of these promises have gone unfulfilled.
As we’ve argued before, the spending cuts that the troika
is demanding are too drastic and have tipped Greece into a
downward economic spiral. But if the country wants to get the
time and money it needs to recover, it has to show that it is
willing and able to execute politically difficult reforms that
are obviously in its best interests.
Opinion polls suggest New Democracy will win with a little
more than 20 percent of the vote on Sunday, and as many as 10
different parties -- from the neo-fascist Golden Dawn to the
Communist Party of Greece -- will pass the 3 percent threshold
required to get into parliament. If a government can be cobbled
together, it will have to get on with creating a viable state.
Otherwise, chief doctor House might just pull the plug.
Read more opinion online from Bloomberg View.
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